James Madison Dukes

7–1 · 5–0 SUN BELT

In the books

WEEK 11 · 2025

The Week 11 recap

James Madison beat Marshall. Playoff odds moved from 35% to 35%.

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ESPN2

playoff chanceEntering35%Win43%Loss12%

James Madison

James Madison 76%Marshall 24%

Marshall

Final · James Madison 35–23 MarshallWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Tulane

at

Memphis

Final · Tulane 38–32 MemphisWish granted ✓

Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

Tulane won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection38% if Tulane won35% with the other result3.6-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN+

Impact 2

Rooted for

Georgia State

at

Coastal Carolina

Final · Georgia State 27–40 Coastal CarolinaWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.0-point title-game boost

Coastal Carolina won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection98% if Georgia State won94% with the other result4-point differenceJames Madison Sun Belt title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 3

Georgia Southern

at

Rooted for

App State

Final · Georgia Southern 25–23 App StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Georgia Southern won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if App State won34% with the other result2.1-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 4

Rooted for

UTSA

at

South Florida

Final · UTSA 23–55 South FloridaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

South Florida won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if UTSA won35% with the other result2-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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CBSSN

Impact 5

Duke

at

Rooted for

UConn

Final · Duke 34–37 UConnWish granted ✓

Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

UConn won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection36% if UConn won34% with the other result1.8-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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TV TBA

Impact 6

San Diego State

at

Rooted for

Hawai'i

Final · San Diego State 6–38 Hawai'iWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Hawai'i won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection37% if Hawai'i won35% with the other result1.7-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

44 other games had little impact

Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2

Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU

Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2

Houston at UCF · FS1

Northwestern at USC · FOX

Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN

Indiana at Penn State · FOX

SMU at Boston College · ACC Network

BYU at Texas Tech · ABC

Colorado at West Virginia · TNT

Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU

Temple at Army · CBSSN

Ohio State at Purdue · BTN

Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

UAB at Rice · ESPN+

Maryland at Rutgers · FS1

Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+

Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC

Oregon at Iowa · CBS

Syracuse at Miami · ESPN

Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2

Iowa State at TCU · FOX

Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+

Washington at Wisconsin · BTN

Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network

Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+

Air Force at San José State · FS1

California at Louisville · ESPN2

Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network

Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN

LSU at Alabama · ABC

Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network

Navy at Notre Dame · NBC

Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN

Nebraska at UCLA · FOX

UNLV at Colorado State · FS1

Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.