James Madison Dukes

6–1 · 4–0 SUN BELT

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

James Madison beat Texas State. Playoff odds moved from 27% to 35%.

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ESPN2

playoff chanceEntering27%Win35%Loss14%

James Madison

James Madison 63%Texas State 37%

Texas State

Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN2

Impact 1

Marshall

at

Rooted for

Coastal Carolina

Final · Marshall 27–44 Coastal CarolinaWish granted ✓

Projected 15.4-point title-game boost

Marshall lost, improving James Madison's place in the Sun Belt standings.

Entering-week projection84% if Coastal Carolina won69% with the other result15-point differenceJames Madison Sun Belt title-game chance

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FS1

Impact 2

Rooted for

Fresno State

at

Boise State

Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓

Projected 3.3-point playoff boost

Fresno State won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection30% if Fresno State won27% with the other result3.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 3

Memphis

at

Rooted for

Rice

Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

Memphis won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Rice won27% with the other result2.9-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 4

Rooted for

Navy

at

North Texas

Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Navy won27% with the other result1.4-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ACC Network

Impact 5

Rooted for

Duke

at

Clemson

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWish granted ✓

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Duke won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection28% if Duke won27% with the other result1.2-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

46 other games had little impact

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

Miami at SMU · ESPN

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network

New Mexico at UNLV

Georgia at Florida · ABC

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Virginia at California · ESPN2

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network

Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.