James Madison Dukes

8–1 · 6–0 SUN BELT

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

James Madison beat App State. Playoff odds moved from 35% to 39%.

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ESPN+

playoff chanceEntering35%Win36%Loss9%

App State

App State 4%James Madison 96%

James Madison

Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN+

Impact 1

Coastal Carolina

at

Rooted for

Georgia Southern

Final · Coastal Carolina 40–45 Georgia SouthernWish granted ✓

Projected 9.9-point title-game boost

Georgia Southern won, all but clinching James Madison's spot in the Sun Belt title game.

Entering-week projection>99% if Georgia Southern won90% with the other result9.9-point differenceJames Madison Sun Belt title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 2

South Florida

at

Rooted for

Navy

Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓

Projected 9.6-point playoff boost

Navy won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection42% if Navy won32% with the other result9.6-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN+

Impact 3

North Texas

at

Rooted for

UAB

Final · North Texas 53–24 UABWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.8-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if UAB won35% with the other result3.8-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 4

Virginia

at

Rooted for

Duke

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Duke won33% with the other result3.5-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN+

Impact 5

Florida Atlantic

at

Rooted for

Tulane

Final · Florida Atlantic 24–35 TulaneWish granted ✓

Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Tulane won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection35% if Tulane won33% with the other result2.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 6

Ohio

at

Rooted for

Western Michigan

Final · Ohio 13–17 Western MichiganWish granted ✓

Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Western Michigan won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection37% if Western Michigan won34% with the other result2.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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CBSSN

Impact 7

Boise State

at

Rooted for

San Diego State

Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓

Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

San Diego State won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection36% if San Diego State won34% with the other result2.2-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN+

Impact 8

Texas State

at

Rooted for

Southern Miss

Final · Texas State 41–14 Southern MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Texas State won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Southern Miss won34% with the other result1.6-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ACC Network

Impact 9

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

Boston College

Final · Georgia Tech 36–34 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Boston College won35% with the other result1.5-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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CBSSN

Impact 10

Rooted for

Utah State

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UNLV

Final · Utah State 26–29 UNLVWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Utah State won35% with the other result1.5-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 11

Rooted for

Clemson

at

Louisville

Final · Clemson 20–19 LouisvilleWish granted ✓

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Louisville lost, softening the damage from James Madison's loss to them.

Entering-week projection36% if Clemson won34% with the other result1.4-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

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The CW Network

Impact 12

Louisiana Tech

at

Rooted for

Washington State

Final · Louisiana Tech 3–28 Washington StateWish granted ✓

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Washington State won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 13 game against James Madison.

Entering-week projection36% if Washington State won34% with the other result1.4-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance

45 other games had little impact

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Minnesota at Oregon · FOX

South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN

Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

NC State at Miami · ESPN

UCF at Texas Tech · FOX

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Utah at Baylor · ESPN2

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Texas at Georgia · ABC

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

TCU at BYU · ESPN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.