๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

James Madison Dukes

2โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“0 SUN BELT
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

James Madison beat Georgia Southern. Playoff odds moved from 14% to 19%.

Your game

Georgia Southern at James Madison
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Sun Belt title-game chanceEntering50%Win54%Loss23%
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern 11%James Madison 89%
James Madison
Final ยท Georgia Southern 10โ€“35 James MadisonWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result James Madison wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Marshall
at
Rooted for
Louisiana
Final ยท Marshall 51โ€“54 LouisianaWish granted โœ“
Projected 7.8-point title-game boost

Marshall lost, improving James Madison's place in the Sun Belt standings.

Entering-week projection55% if Louisiana won47% with the other result7.8-point differenceJames Madison Sun Belt title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Jacksonville State
at
Rooted for
Southern Miss
Final ยท Jacksonville State 25โ€“42 Southern MissWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Southern Miss won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection15% if Southern Miss won13% with the other result1.8-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 3
Rooted for
South Alabama
at
North Texas
Final ยท South Alabama 22โ€“36 North TexasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if South Alabama won13% with the other result1.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:James Madison, then Louisiana, Southern Miss, South Alabama.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.