The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
9 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 4–0 | 6–1 | 7.1–0.9 | 72% | 59% | 40% |
 Troy | 4–0 | 6–2 | 6.9–1.1 | 70% | 18% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 4–0 | 6–2 | 5.6–2.4 | 25% | 4% | 0% |
 Arkansas State | 3–1 | 4–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 5% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 3–1 | 4–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 2–1 | 4–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 27% | 18% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 2–2 | 5–3 | 5.0–3.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 App State | 1–3 | 4–4 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 1–3 | 2–6 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 1–3 | 2–6 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–3 | 3–5 | 1.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–3 | 3–4 | 3.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10).