The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 4–0 | 6–2 | 7.3–0.7 | 96% | 66% | 34% |
 San Diego State | 3–0 | 6–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 63% | 22% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 3–1 | 6–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 UNLV | 2–1 | 6–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 32% | 10% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 2–2 | 5–3 | 4.0–4.0 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Wyoming | 2–2 | 4–4 | 4.0–4.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Utah State | 2–2 | 4–4 | 3.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Fresno State | 2–2 | 5–3 | 3.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 San José State | 1–2 | 2–5 | 3.9–4.1 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Colorado State | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Air Force | 1–4 | 2–5 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10).