๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Boise State Broncos

6โ€“2 ยท 4โ€“0 PAC-12
In the books
WEEK 10 ยท 2025
The Week 10 recap

Boise State lost to Fresno State. Playoff odds moved from 28% to 7%.

Your game

Fresno State at Boise State
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playoff chanceEntering28%Win30%Loss10%
Fresno State
Fresno State 8%Boise State 92%
Boise State
Final ยท Fresno State 30โ€“7 Boise StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Boise State wanted
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Impact 1
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Texas State
Final ยท James Madison 52โ€“20 Texas StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.4-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Texas State won26% with the other result5.4-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 2
Memphis
at
Rooted for
Rice
Final ยท Memphis 38โ€“14 RiceWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Memphis won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if Rice won28% with the other result2.6-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 3
Texas Tech
at
Rooted for
Kansas State
Final ยท Texas Tech 43โ€“20 Kansas StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Kansas State won28% with the other result1.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Navy
at
North Texas
Final ยท Navy 17โ€“31 North TexasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Navy won28% with the other result1.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State ยท ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA ยท ESPN
North Carolina at Syracuse ยท ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech ยท CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas ยท ABC
Penn State at Ohio State ยท FOX
Rutgers at Illinois ยท NBC
Duke at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Miami at SMU ยท ESPN
UCF at Baylor ยท ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston ยท FS1
UAB at UConn ยท CBSSN
Army at Air Force ยท CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State ยท TNT
East Carolina at Temple ยท ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida ยท ABC
Indiana at Maryland ยท CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota ยท BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College ยท ESPN
Delaware at Liberty ยท CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Virginia at California ยท ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan ยท ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Michigan ยท BTN
Arizona at Colorado ยท FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee ยท ABC
USC at Nebraska ยท NBC
Washington State at Oregon State ยท CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State ยท ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy ยท ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at San Josรฉ State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Boise State, then Texas State, Rice, Kansas State, Navy.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.