๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Boise State Broncos

5โ€“2 ยท 3โ€“0 PAC-12
In the books
WEEK 9 ยท 2025
The Week 9 recap

Boise State beat Nevada. Playoff odds moved from 29% to 28%.

Your game

Boise State at Nevada
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playoff chanceEntering29%Win30%Loss12%
Boise State
Boise State 92%Nevada 8%
Nevada
Final ยท Boise State 24โ€“3 NevadaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Boise State wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
UConn
at
Rice
Final ยท UConn 34โ€“37 RiceWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Rice won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if UConn won28% with the other result1.5-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
Georgia Tech
Final ยท Syracuse 16โ€“41 Georgia TechWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Syracuse won29% with the other result1.4-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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TV TBA
Impact 3
Rooted for
Utah State
at
New Mexico
Final ยท Utah State 14โ€“33 New MexicoWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

New Mexico won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Utah State won28% with the other result1.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 4
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Memphis
Final ยท South Florida 31โ€“34 MemphisWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

South Florida lost, softening the damage from Boise State's loss to them.

Entering-week projection29% if Memphis won28% with the other result1.3-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
48 other games had little impact
Kennesaw State at Florida International ยท ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech ยท CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware ยท ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State ยท ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte ยท ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska ยท FS1
Rutgers at Purdue ยท BTN
UCLA at Indiana ยท FOX
SMU at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Virginia at North Carolina ยท ACC Network
Kansas State at Kansas ยท TNT
App State at Old Dominion ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Kent State ยท ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan ยท CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Alabama at South Carolina ยท ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt ยท ESPN
Illinois at Washington ยท BTN
Minnesota at Iowa ยท CBS
Toledo at Washington State ยท The CW Network
NC State at Pittsburgh ยท ACC Network
BYU at Iowa State ยท FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State ยท FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy ยท CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati ยท ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech ยท ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia ยท ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon ยท FS1
Stanford at Miami ยท ESPN
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU ยท ABC
Michigan at Michigan State ยท NBC
Boston College at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State ยท ESPN2
Colorado at Utah ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Boise State, then UConn, Syracuse, Utah State, Memphis.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.