๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Boise State Broncos

6โ€“3 ยท 4โ€“1 PAC-12
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Boise State lost to San Diego State. Playoff odds moved from 8% to 3%.

Your game

Boise State at San Diego State
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Pac-12 title-game chanceEntering79%Win97%Loss54%
Boise State
Boise State 57%San Diego State 43%
San Diego State
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“17 San Diego StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Boise State wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final ยท App State 10โ€“58 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.8-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if App State won8% with the other result3.8-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 2
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final ยท South Florida 38โ€“41 NavyWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

South Florida lost, softening the damage from Boise State's loss to them.

Entering-week projection11% if Navy won8% with the other result3.2-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Utah State
at
UNLV
Final ยท Utah State 26โ€“29 UNLVWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Utah State won8% with the other result1.5-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 4
North Texas
at
Rooted for
UAB
Final ยท North Texas 53โ€“24 UABWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if UAB won8% with the other result1.4-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
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Impact 5
Virginia
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final ยท Virginia 34โ€“17 DukeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Boise State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Duke won7% with the other result1.4-point differenceBoise State playoff chance
52 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Boise State, then App State, Navy, Utah State, UAB, Duke.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.