🏈 Fan Watch

#19Tennessee Volunteers

8–3 · 4–3 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt. Playoff odds moved from 7% to <1%.

The SEC title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Vanderbilt at Tennessee
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ESPN
playoff chanceEntering7%Win10%Loss<1%
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 35%Tennessee 65%
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Tennessee wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Auburn won6% with the other result2.5-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if LSU won6% with the other result2.4-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Mississippi State won7% with the other result2.4-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Kansas won7% with the other result2-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 5
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection8% if Washington won6% with the other result1.8-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 6
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Tennessee's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection7% if Ohio State won6% with the other result1.3-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
60 other games had little impact
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Miami at Pittsburgh · ABC
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Tennessee, then Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Kansas, Washington, Ohio State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.