๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#15Tennessee Volunteers

3โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Tennessee beat Mississippi State. Playoff odds moved from 19% to 14%.

Your game

Tennessee at Mississippi State
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playoff chanceEntering19%Win21%Loss8%
Tennessee
Tennessee 79%Mississippi State 21%
Mississippi State
Final ยท Tennessee 41โ€“34 Mississippi StateWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Tennessee wanted
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Impact 1
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Notre Dame 56โ€“13 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection22% if Arkansas won18% with the other result3.9-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Kentucky
at
South Carolina
Final ยท Kentucky 13โ€“35 South CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

South Carolina won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Kentucky won18% with the other result1.5-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 3
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Penn State
Final ยท Oregon 30โ€“24 Penn StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Penn State won17% with the other result1.3-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 4
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final ยท Indiana 20โ€“15 IowaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Iowa won18% with the other result1.2-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Tennessee, then Arkansas, Kentucky, Penn State, Iowa.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.