๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#15Tennessee Volunteers

4โ€“1 ยท 1โ€“1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 6 ยท 2025
The Week 6 recap

Tennessee was off. Playoff odds moved from 14% to 30%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Tennessee wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Kentucky
at
Georgia
Final ยท Kentucky 14โ€“35 GeorgiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Kentucky won14% with the other result3.2-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Boise State
at
Notre Dame
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“28 Notre DameWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Boise State won14% with the other result2.6-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 3
Texas
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final ยท Texas 21โ€“29 FloridaWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Florida won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 13 game against Tennessee.

Entering-week projection15% if Florida won13% with the other result2-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Mississippi State
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท Mississippi State 9โ€“31 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Mississippi State won13% with the other result1.5-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
Vanderbilt
at
Alabama
Final ยท Vanderbilt 14โ€“30 AlabamaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Tennessee did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Vanderbilt won13% with the other result1.4-point differenceTennessee playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
Sam Houston at New Mexico State ยท CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida ยท ESPN2
New Mexico at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
West Virginia at BYU ยท ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wisconsin at Michigan ยท FOX
Illinois at Purdue ยท BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh ยท ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor ยท ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati ยท ESPN2
Air Force at Navy ยท CBS
Army at UAB ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State ยท CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
UTSA at Temple ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona ยท truTV
Penn State at UCLA ยท CBS
Washington at Maryland ยท BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern ยท BTN
Oregon State at App State ยท ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU ยท ACC Network
Florida International at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma ยท SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska ยท FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston ยท ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy ยท ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice ยท ESPN+
Minnesota at Ohio State ยท NBC
Miami at Florida State ยท ABC
Colorado at TCU ยท FOX
Kansas at UCF ยท ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis ยท ESPNU
Duke at California ยท ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Tennessee is off, then Kentucky, Boise State, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.