#10Alabama Crimson Tide

9–2 · 6–1 SEC

In the books

WEEK 14 · 2025

The Week 14 recap

Alabama beat Auburn. Playoff odds moved from 59% to 57%.

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ABC

SEC title-game chanceEntering77%Win100%Loss0%

Alabama

Alabama 77%Auburn 23%

Auburn

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Stanford

Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗

Projected 8.2-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Stanford won59% with the other result8.2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 2

Rooted for

Texas A&M

at

Texas

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWent the other way ✗

Projected 6.9-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if Texas A&M won56% with the other result6.9-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Ole Miss

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.3-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Mississippi State won58% with the other result4.3-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Rooted for

LSU

at

Oklahoma

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if LSU won58% with the other result3.9-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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CBS

Impact 5

Oregon

at

Rooted for

Washington

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Washington won58% with the other result2.9-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 6

Miami

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Pittsburgh won58% with the other result2.9-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 7

Rooted for

Ohio State

at

Michigan

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Alabama's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection59% if Ohio State won57% with the other result2.4-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Vanderbilt

at

Rooted for

Tennessee

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection59% if Tennessee won57% with the other result2.1-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 9

Texas Tech

at

Rooted for

West Virginia

Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.4-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if West Virginia won14% with the other result3.4-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ESPN

Impact 10

Utah

at

Rooted for

Kansas

Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if Kansas won58% with the other result1.8-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

56 other games had little impact

Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC

Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2

Navy at Memphis · ESPN

Iowa at Nebraska · CBS

Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU

Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN

Air Force at Colorado State · FS1

San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN

Temple at North Texas · ESPN

Boise State at Utah State · CBS

Indiana at Purdue · NBC

Arizona at Arizona State · FOX

Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network

Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network

Houston at Baylor · TNT

Colorado at Kansas State · FS1

Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN

UCF at BYU · ESPN2

UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+

Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+

Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+

Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+

UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+

South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+

UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+

Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network

Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1

Penn State at Rutgers · BTN

Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network

Cincinnati at TCU · FOX

Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN

Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Army at UTSA · ESPN+

James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU

Florida State at Florida · ESPN2

Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network

Maryland at Michigan State · FS1

Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN

Rice at South Florida · ESPN+

UCLA at USC · NBC

Northwestern at Illinois · FOX

North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network

Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU

SMU at California · ESPN2

UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN

Fresno State at San José State · FS1

Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.