🏈 Fan Watch

#17Alabama Crimson Tide

2–1 · 0–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
The Week 5 recap

Alabama beat Georgia. Playoff odds moved from 34% to 54%.

Your game

Alabama at Georgia
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ABC
SEC title-game chanceEntering30%Win60%Loss19%
Alabama
Alabama 27%Georgia 73%
Georgia
Final · Alabama 24–21 GeorgiaWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Alabama wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Rooted for
LSU
at
Ole Miss
Final · LSU 19–24 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.2-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if LSU won29% with the other result6.2-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final · Notre Dame 56–13 ArkansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Arkansas won33% with the other result2.1-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 3
Rooted for
Auburn
at
Texas A&M
Final · Auburn 10–16 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Auburn won33% with the other result2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
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NBC
Impact 4
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Penn State
Final · Oregon 30–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if Penn State won32% with the other result1.5-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 5
Kentucky
at
Rooted for
South Carolina
Final · Kentucky 13–35 South CarolinaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

South Carolina won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 9 game against Alabama.

Entering-week projection34% if South Carolina won32% with the other result1.5-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Indiana at Iowa · Peacock
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
The rooting list was:Alabama, then LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, Penn State, South Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.