#4Alabama Crimson Tide

8–1 · 6–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Alabama lost to Oklahoma. Playoff odds moved from 87% to 51%.

…

…

ABC

playoff chanceEntering87%Win92%Loss64%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma 19%Alabama 81%

Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

By impactBy kickoff

…

…

ESPN

Impact 1

Florida

at

Rooted for

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWish granted ✓

Projected 5.3-point title-game boost

Florida lost, improving Alabama's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection93% if Ole Miss won87% with the other result5.3-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 2

Rooted for

Texas

at

Georgia

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Georgia won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection96% if Texas won91% with the other result4.5-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

…

…

SEC Network

Impact 3

Mississippi State

at

Rooted for

Missouri

Final · Mississippi State 27–49 MissouriWish granted ✓

Projected 4.2-point title-game boost

Mississippi State lost, improving Alabama's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection93% if Missouri won89% with the other result4.2-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 4

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.4-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection95% if South Carolina won92% with the other result3.4-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

…

…

FOX

Impact 5

Rooted for

UCF

at

Texas Tech

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.3-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if UCF won48% with the other result3.3-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 6

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if Pittsburgh won87% with the other result1.7-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

…

…

FS1

Impact 7

Rooted for

Purdue

at

Washington

Final · Purdue 13–49 WashingtonWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Washington won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if Purdue won87% with the other result1.6-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 8

Rooted for

TCU

at

BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if TCU won86% with the other result1.5-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

…

…

ESPN2

Impact 9

Utah

at

Rooted for

Baylor

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if Baylor won87% with the other result1.3-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

48 other games had little impact

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Minnesota at Oregon · FOX

Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

NC State at Miami · ESPN

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.