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#4Alabama Crimson Tide

8–1 · 6–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
93%
SEC title game
46%
Win the SEC
>99%
Make the playoff
62%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.3
How the week went: playoff odds >99% → 70% · title-game odds 93% → 77%.
Playoff odds by week
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The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
#11 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama

Your game. You're essentially in — this is about seeding: win and you're looking at roughly the 4th seed, lose and it's closer to the 5th.

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ABC
#10 Texas at #5 Georgia

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Texas winning protects it; you already beat Georgia; them losing again keeps them behind you; you still play Georgia in week 15.

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas+27.3 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Texas A&M winning protects it; you already beat South Carolina; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWish granted ✓
Root for Texas A&M+12.0 pp first-round-bye odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · SEC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri

SEC race: Mississippi State losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Missouri — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Mississippi State 27–49 MissouriWish granted ✓
Root for Missouri+3.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss

SEC race: Florida losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWish granted ✓
Root for Ole Miss+2.7 pp title-game odds
53 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12).