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#4Alabama Crimson Tide

7–1 · 5–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
90%
SEC title game
44%
Win the SEC
100%
Make the playoff
61%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.3
How the week went: playoff odds 100% → >99% · title-game odds 90% → 93%.
Playoff odds by week
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The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
LSU at #4 Alabama

Your game. You're essentially in — this is about seeding: win and you're looking at roughly the 4th seed, lose and it's closer to the 5th.

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Mississippi State winning protects it; you already beat Georgia; them losing again keeps them behind you; you still play Georgia in week 15.

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+25.0 pp first-round-bye odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Texas A&M winning protects it; you already beat Missouri; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWish granted ✓
Root for Texas A&M+5.2 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · SEC Network
Auburn at #16 Vanderbilt

SEC race: Auburn losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Vanderbilt — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Auburn in week 14.

Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWish granted ✓
Root for Vanderbilt+2.0 pp title-game odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Air Force at San José State · FS1
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11).