#4Alabama Crimson Tide

7–1 · 5–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 11 · 2025

The Week 11 recap

Alabama beat LSU. Playoff odds moved from 89% to 87%.

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ABC

SEC title-game chanceEntering90%Win94%Loss60%

LSU

LSU 12%Alabama 88%

Alabama

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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BTN

Impact 1

Ohio State

at

Rooted for

Purdue

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.1-point first-round-bye boost

Ohio State won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection55% if Purdue won50% with the other result5.1-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.6-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Mississippi State won50% with the other result3.6-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

Missouri

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection91% if Missouri won89% with the other result2.7-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

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FOX

Impact 4

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Penn State

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if Penn State won50% with the other result2.7-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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SEC Network

Impact 5

Rooted for

Auburn

at

Vanderbilt

Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection90% if Auburn won88% with the other result1.2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

45 other games had little impact

Oregon at Iowa · CBS

Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2

Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU

Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2

Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2

UTSA at South Florida · ESPN

Houston at UCF · FS1

Northwestern at USC · FOX

Tulane at Memphis · ESPN

SMU at Boston College · ACC Network

BYU at Texas Tech · ABC

Colorado at West Virginia · TNT

James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2

Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU

Temple at Army · CBSSN

Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

UAB at Rice · ESPN+

Maryland at Rutgers · FS1

Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+

Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Syracuse at Miami · ESPN

Duke at UConn · CBSSN

Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2

Iowa State at TCU · FOX

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Washington at Wisconsin · BTN

Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network

Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+

Air Force at San José State · FS1

California at Louisville · ESPN2

Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network

Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN

Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network

Navy at Notre Dame · NBC

Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN

Nebraska at UCLA · FOX

UNLV at Colorado State · FS1

Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network

San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.