#4Alabama Crimson Tide

7–1 · 5–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

Alabama was off. Playoff odds moved from 90% to 89%.

By impactBy kickoff

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ABC

Impact 1

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Florida

Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.4-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if Florida won52% with the other result5.4-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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CBS

Impact 2

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Maryland

Final · Indiana 55–10 MarylandWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.4-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection57% if Maryland won53% with the other result4.4-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ESPN

Impact 3

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Ole Miss

Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection92% if South Carolina won90% with the other result2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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SEC Network

Impact 4

Kentucky

at

Rooted for

Auburn

Final · Kentucky 10–3 AuburnWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.6-point first-round-bye boost

Kentucky won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection53% if Auburn won51% with the other result2.6-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 5

Rooted for

Oklahoma

at

Tennessee

Final · Oklahoma 33–27 TennesseeWish granted ✓

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Tennessee lost again, helping keep them behind Alabama.

Entering-week projection91% if Oklahoma won89% with the other result1.2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

47 other games had little impact

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Miami at SMU · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

Memphis at Rice · ESPN2

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

Duke at Clemson · ACC Network

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Navy at North Texas · ESPN2

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network

New Mexico at UNLV

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Fresno State at Boise State · FS1

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Virginia at California · ESPN2

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network

Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.