๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#25Memphis Tigers

7โ€“1 ยท 3โ€“1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 ยท 2025
The Week 10 recap

Memphis beat Rice. Playoff odds moved from 18% to 18%.

Your game

Memphis at Rice
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American title-game chanceEntering48%Win50%Loss18%
Memphis
Memphis 92%Rice 8%
Rice
Final ยท Memphis 38โ€“14 RiceWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Memphis wanted
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Impact 1
Tulane
at
Rooted for
UTSA
Final ยท Tulane 26โ€“48 UTSAWish granted โœ“
Projected 13.6-point title-game boost

Tulane lost, improving Memphis's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection55% if UTSA won41% with the other result14-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Navy
at
North Texas
Final ยท Navy 17โ€“31 North TexasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Navy won17% with the other result3.1-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
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Impact 3
East Carolina
at
Rooted for
Temple
Final ยท East Carolina 45โ€“14 TempleWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.4-point title-game boost

East Carolina won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection50% if Temple won46% with the other result4.4-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 4
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Texas State
Final ยท James Madison 52โ€“20 Texas StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Texas State won17% with the other result1.2-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State ยท ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse ยท ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech ยท CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas ยท ABC
Penn State at Ohio State ยท FOX
Rutgers at Illinois ยท NBC
Duke at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Miami at SMU ยท ESPN
UCF at Baylor ยท ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston ยท FS1
UAB at UConn ยท CBSSN
Army at Air Force ยท CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State ยท TNT
Louisville at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida ยท ABC
Indiana at Maryland ยท CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota ยท BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College ยท ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State ยท FOX
Delaware at Liberty ยท CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State ยท FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Virginia at California ยท ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan ยท ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Michigan ยท BTN
Arizona at Colorado ยท FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee ยท ABC
USC at Nebraska ยท NBC
Washington State at Oregon State ยท CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State ยท ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy ยท ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at San Josรฉ State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Memphis, then UTSA, Navy, Temple, Texas State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.