๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Memphis Tigers

4โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Memphis beat Florida Atlantic. Playoff odds moved from 20% to 24%.

Your game

Memphis at Florida Atlantic
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American title-game chanceEntering59%Win62%Loss34%
Memphis
Memphis 87%Florida Atlantic 13%
Florida Atlantic
Final ยท Memphis 55โ€“26 Florida AtlanticWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Memphis wanted
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Impact 1
Tulane
at
Rooted for
Tulsa
Final ยท Tulane 31โ€“14 TulsaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.1-point title-game boost

Tulane won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if Tulsa won58% with the other result4.1-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Rice
at
Navy
Final ยท Rice 13โ€“21 NavyWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

Navy won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Rice won58% with the other result3.1-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Georgia Southern
at
James Madison
Final ยท Georgia Southern 10โ€“35 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Georgia Southern won20% with the other result1.5-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Bowling Green
at
Ohio
Final ยท Bowling Green 20โ€“35 OhioWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Ohio won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Bowling Green won19% with the other result1.5-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Memphis, then Tulsa, Rice, Georgia Southern, Bowling Green.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.