๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Memphis Tigers

8โ€“2 ยท 4โ€“2 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Memphis lost to East Carolina. Playoff odds moved from 1% to <1%.

Your game

Memphis at East Carolina
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American title-game chanceEntering4%Win9%Loss<1%
Memphis
Memphis 48%East Carolina 52%
East Carolina
Final ยท Memphis 27โ€“31 East CarolinaWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Memphis wanted
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Impact 1
North Texas
at
Rooted for
UAB
Final ยท North Texas 53โ€“24 UABWent the other way โœ—
Projected 12.9-point title-game boost

North Texas won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if UAB won3% with the other result13-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida Atlantic
at
Tulane
Final ยท Florida Atlantic 24โ€“35 TulaneWent the other way โœ—
Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Tulane won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection12% if Florida Atlantic won3% with the other result9-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 3
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final ยท South Florida 38โ€“41 NavyWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

South Florida lost, improving Memphis's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection6% if Navy won3% with the other result3-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
54 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Memphis, then UAB, Florida Atlantic, Navy.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.