๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#22Memphis Tigers

6โ€“0 ยท 2โ€“0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 8 ยท 2025
The Week 8 recap

Memphis lost to UAB. Playoff odds moved from 37% to 11%.

Your game

Memphis at UAB
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playoff chanceEntering37%Win39%Loss18%
Memphis
Memphis 91%UAB 9%
UAB
Final ยท Memphis 24โ€“31 UABWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Memphis wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Army
at
Tulane
Final ยท Army 17โ€“24 TulaneWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.2-point title-game boost

Tulane won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Army won74% with the other result5.2-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida Atlantic
at
South Florida
Final ยท Florida Atlantic 13โ€“48 South FloridaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.5-point title-game boost

South Florida won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Florida Atlantic won75% with the other result3.5-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Old Dominion
at
James Madison
Final ยท Old Dominion 27โ€“63 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if Old Dominion won36% with the other result1.8-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Tulsa
at
East Carolina
Final ยท Tulsa 27โ€“41 East CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.7-point title-game boost

East Carolina won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Tulsa won76% with the other result2.7-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
UTSA
at
North Texas
Final ยท UTSA 17โ€“55 North TexasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

North Texas won instead, so Memphis did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection77% if UTSA won75% with the other result2.4-point differenceMemphis American title-game chance
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TV TBA
Impact 6
Rooted for
Hawai'i
at
Colorado State
Final ยท Hawai'i 31โ€“19 Colorado StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Hawai'i won, thinning out the at-large competition for Memphis's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection38% if Hawai'i won36% with the other result1.2-point differenceMemphis playoff chance
52 other games had little impact
New Mexico State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Arkansas State at South Alabama ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Western Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Louisville at Miami ยท ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota ยท FOX
San Josรฉ State at Utah State ยท CBSSN
North Carolina at California ยท ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt ยท ABC
Washington at Michigan ยท FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke ยท ESPN
UConn at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Arizona at Houston ยท FS1
Baylor at TCU ยท ESPN2
Central Michigan at Bowling Green ยท CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
West Virginia at UCF ยท TNT
Kent State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern ยท BTN
Troy at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Arkansas ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Georgia ยท ABC
Ohio State at Wisconsin ยท CBS
Michigan State at Indiana ยท Peacock
SMU at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force ยท CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State ยท FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Akron at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Arizona State ยท FOX
Mississippi State at Florida ยท SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Oregon at Rutgers ยท BTN
Washington State at Virginia ยท The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky ยท ESPN
Penn State at Iowa ยท Peacock
Maryland at UCLA ยท FS1
Georgia State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama ยท ABC
USC at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Pittsburgh at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Missouri at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Utah at BYU ยท FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico ยท FS1
Florida State at Stanford ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Memphis, then Army, Florida Atlantic, Old Dominion, Tulsa, UTSA, Hawai'i.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.