🏈 Fan Watch

#10Miami Hurricanes

6–1 · 2–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
The Week 10 recap

Miami lost to SMU. Playoff odds moved from 47% to 12%.

Your game

Miami at SMU
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ESPN
playoff chanceEntering47%Win63%Loss26%
Miami
Miami 57%SMU 43%
SMU
Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Miami wanted
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ESPN2
Impact 1
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓
Projected 11.5-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Miami's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection35% if NC State won23% with the other result11-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Boston College
Final · Notre Dame 25–10 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Boston College won47% with the other result6.6-point differenceMiami playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 3
Duke
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.4-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Clemson won23% with the other result6.4-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ESPN2
Impact 4
Virginia
at
Rooted for
California
Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.3-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if California won25% with the other result6.3-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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The CW Network
Impact 5
Louisville
at
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.2-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Virginia Tech won26% with the other result6.2-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 6
Wake Forest
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Projected 4.2-point title-game boost

Wake Forest lost, improving Miami's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection29% if Florida State won25% with the other result4.2-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 7
North Carolina
at
Rooted for
Syracuse
Final · North Carolina 27–10 SyracuseWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

North Carolina won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Syracuse won26% with the other result3-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 8
Pittsburgh
at
Rooted for
Stanford
Final · Pittsburgh 35–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.8-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Stanford won27% with the other result2.8-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 9
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Texas
Final · Vanderbilt 31–34 TexasWish granted ✓
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Texas won, thinning out the at-large competition for Miami's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection47% if Texas won46% with the other result1.4-point differenceMiami playoff chance
42 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Miami, then NC State, Boston College, Clemson, California, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse, Stanford, Texas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.