🏈 Fan Watch

#4Miami Hurricanes

3–0 · 0–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
The Week 4 recap

Miami beat Florida. Playoff odds moved from 72% to 85%.

Your game

Florida at Miami
…
…
ABC
playoff chanceEntering72%Win75%Loss60%
Florida
Florida 20%Miami 80%
Miami
Final · Florida 7–26 MiamiWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Miami wanted
…
…
ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
Clemson
Final · Syracuse 34–21 ClemsonWish granted ✓
Projected 5.1-point title-game boost

Clemson lost, improving Miami's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection70% if Syracuse won65% with the other result5.1-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Stanford
at
Virginia
Final · Stanford 20–48 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.5-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Stanford won65% with the other result3.5-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 3
Southern Miss
at
Rooted for
Louisiana Tech
Final · Southern Miss 20–30 Louisiana TechWish granted ✓
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Louisiana Tech won, thinning out the at-large competition for Miami's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection72% if Louisiana Tech won71% with the other result1.6-point differenceMiami playoff chance
…
…
FOX
Impact 4
Rooted for
Michigan State
at
USC
Final · Michigan State 31–45 USCWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.7-point first-round-bye boost

USC won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Michigan State won35% with the other result2.7-point differenceMiami first-round bye chance
45 other games had little impact
Michigan at Nebraska · CBS
Tulane at Ole Miss · ESPN
NC State at Duke · ESPN2
SMU at TCU · ESPN
Rice at Charlotte · ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State · ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers · FOX
Arkansas at Memphis · ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin · NBC
Bowling Green at Louisville · ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah · FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) · ESPNU
North Texas at Army · CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee · SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon · BTN
Auburn at Oklahoma · ABC
Purdue at Notre Dame · NBC
Kent State at Florida State · ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF · FOX
Ball State at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty · ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan · ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech · The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas · FS1
Delaware at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri · ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force · CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama · ESPN+
Georgia State at Vanderbilt · ESPNU
Washington at Washington State · CBS
Illinois at Indiana · NBC
Arizona State at Baylor · FOX
BYU at East Carolina · ESPN2
Sam Houston at Texas · ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP · ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State · FS1
Wyoming at Colorado · ESPN
California at San Diego State · CBSSN
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Miami, then Syracuse, Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Michigan State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.