#15Miami Hurricanes

7–2 · 3–2 ACC

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Miami beat NC State. Playoff odds moved from 25% to 39%.

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ESPN

playoff chanceEntering25%Win27%Loss3%

NC State

NC State 8%Miami 92%

Miami

Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ABC

Impact 1

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 6.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if Pittsburgh won24% with the other result6.8-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Rooted for

Florida

at

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Florida won25% with the other result4.1-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 3

Utah

at

Rooted for

Baylor

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Baylor won24% with the other result3.1-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ACC Network

Impact 4

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

Boston College

Final · Georgia Tech 36–34 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.6-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Boston College won5% with the other result4.6-point differenceMiami ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 5

Rooted for

TCU

at

BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if TCU won24% with the other result2.9-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 6

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if South Carolina won25% with the other result1.7-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 7

Oklahoma

at

Rooted for

Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Alabama won24% with the other result1.5-point differenceMiami playoff chance

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ACC Network

Impact 8

Rooted for

Virginia Tech

at

Florida State

Final · Virginia Tech 14–34 Florida StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Florida State won instead, so Miami did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if Virginia Tech won25% with the other result1.3-point differenceMiami playoff chance

49 other games had little impact

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Minnesota at Oregon · FOX

Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

UCF at Texas Tech · FOX

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

Texas at Georgia · ABC

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.