๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#16Louisville Cardinals

6โ€“1 ยท 3โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 10 ยท 2025
The Week 10 recap

Louisville beat Virginia Tech. Playoff odds moved from 23% to 27%.

Your game

Louisville at Virginia Tech
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playoff chanceEntering23%Win27%Loss8%
Louisville
Louisville 78%Virginia Tech 23%
Virginia Tech
Final ยท Louisville 28โ€“16 Virginia TechWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Louisville wanted
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Impact 1
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final ยท Georgia Tech 36โ€“48 NC StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 12.6-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Louisville's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection35% if NC State won23% with the other result13-point differenceLouisville ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Virginia
at
Rooted for
California
Final ยท Virginia 31โ€“21 CaliforniaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 11.1-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so Louisville did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if California won23% with the other result11-point differenceLouisville ACC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Duke
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final ยท Duke 46โ€“45 ClemsonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so Louisville did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Clemson won24% with the other result4.5-point differenceLouisville ACC title-game chance
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Impact 4
Miami
at
Rooted for
SMU
Final ยท Miami 20โ€“26 SMUWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Miami lost again, helping keep them behind Louisville.

Entering-week projection24% if SMU won22% with the other result2.3-point differenceLouisville playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
USC at Nebraska ยท NBC
Pittsburgh at Stanford ยท ACC Network
UTEP at Kennesaw State ยท ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State ยท ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA ยท ESPN
Memphis at Rice ยท ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse ยท ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech ยท CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas ยท ABC
Penn State at Ohio State ยท FOX
Rutgers at Illinois ยท NBC
UCF at Baylor ยท ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston ยท FS1
UAB at UConn ยท CBSSN
Army at Air Force ยท CBS
Navy at North Texas ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State ยท TNT
East Carolina at Temple ยท ESPN+
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida ยท ABC
Indiana at Maryland ยท CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota ยท BTN
Notre Dame at Boston College ยท ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State ยท FOX
Delaware at Liberty ยท CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State ยท FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Mississippi State at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan ยท ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Michigan ยท BTN
Arizona at Colorado ยท FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee ยท ABC
Washington State at Oregon State ยท CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Arkansas State at Troy ยท ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at San Josรฉ State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Louisville, then NC State, California, Clemson, SMU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.