๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#15Louisville Cardinals

7โ€“1 ยท 4โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

Louisville lost to California. Playoff odds moved from 27% to 9%.

Your game

California at Louisville
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playoff chanceEntering27%Win29%Loss8%
California
California 8%Louisville 92%
Louisville
Final ยท California 29โ€“26 LouisvilleWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Louisville wanted
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Impact 1
SMU
at
Rooted for
Boston College
Final ยท SMU 45โ€“13 Boston CollegeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 10.8-point title-game boost

SMU won instead, so Louisville did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection42% if Boston College won32% with the other result11-point differenceLouisville ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Wake Forest
at
Virginia
Final ยท Wake Forest 16โ€“9 VirginiaWish granted โœ“
Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Virginia lost, improving Louisville's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection41% if Wake Forest won32% with the other result9-point differenceLouisville ACC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final ยท Georgia 41โ€“21 Mississippi StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Louisville did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Mississippi State won27% with the other result2.7-point differenceLouisville playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Louisville, then Boston College, Wake Forest, Mississippi State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.