๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#4LSU Tigers

4โ€“0 ยท 1โ€“0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

LSU lost to Ole Miss. Playoff odds moved from 45% to 15%.

Your game

LSU at Ole Miss
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playoff chanceEntering45%Win62%Loss41%
LSU
LSU 15%Ole Miss 85%
Ole Miss
Final ยท LSU 19โ€“24 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result LSU wanted
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Impact 1
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Notre Dame 56โ€“13 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so LSU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection48% if Arkansas won44% with the other result3.6-point differenceLSU playoff chance
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Impact 2
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Penn State
Final ยท Oregon 30โ€“24 Penn StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so LSU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection45% if Penn State won43% with the other result1.7-point differenceLSU playoff chance
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Impact 3
Kentucky
at
Rooted for
South Carolina
Final ยท Kentucky 13โ€“35 South CarolinaWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

South Carolina won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 7 game against LSU.

Entering-week projection45% if South Carolina won43% with the other result1.6-point differenceLSU playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Alabama
at
Georgia
Final ยท Alabama 24โ€“21 GeorgiaWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Alabama won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 11 game against LSU.

Entering-week projection46% if Alabama won44% with the other result1.4-point differenceLSU playoff chance
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Impact 5
Auburn
at
Rooted for
Texas A&M
Final ยท Auburn 10โ€“16 Texas A&MWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 9 game against LSU.

Entering-week projection45% if Texas A&M won44% with the other result1.4-point differenceLSU playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:LSU, then Arkansas, Penn State, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas A&M.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.