๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#7Oklahoma Sooners

4โ€“0 ยท 1โ€“0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Oklahoma was off. Playoff odds moved from 37% to 44%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oklahoma wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Notre Dame 56โ€“13 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection39% if Arkansas won37% with the other result2.5-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final ยท Indiana 20โ€“15 IowaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if Iowa won36% with the other result1.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 3
USC
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final ยท USC 32โ€“34 IllinoisWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Illinois won, thinning out the at-large competition for Oklahoma's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection38% if Illinois won36% with the other result1.5-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 4
Rooted for
Tennessee
at
Mississippi State
Final ยท Tennessee 41โ€“34 Mississippi StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Tennessee won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 10 game against Oklahoma.

Entering-week projection37% if Tennessee won36% with the other result1.5-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 5
Kentucky
at
Rooted for
South Carolina
Final ยท Kentucky 13โ€“35 South CarolinaWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

South Carolina won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 8 game against Oklahoma.

Entering-week projection37% if South Carolina won36% with the other result1.4-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Oklahoma is off, then Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, South Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.