๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#11Oklahoma Sooners

7โ€“2 ยท 3โ€“2 SEC
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Oklahoma beat Alabama. Playoff odds moved from 39% to 59%.

Your game

Oklahoma at Alabama
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playoff chanceEntering39%Win70%Loss32%
Oklahoma
Oklahoma 19%Alabama 81%
Alabama
Final ยท Oklahoma 23โ€“21 AlabamaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oklahoma wanted
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Impact 1
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Notre Dame 37โ€“15 PittsburghWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if Pittsburgh won39% with the other result4.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final ยท Florida 24โ€“34 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.2-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if Florida won39% with the other result4.2-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 3
Arkansas
at
Rooted for
LSU
Final ยท Arkansas 22โ€“23 LSUWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

LSU won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 14 game against Oklahoma.

Entering-week projection40% if LSU won36% with the other result3.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 4
Mississippi State
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final ยท Mississippi State 27โ€“49 MissouriWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.3-point playoff boost

Missouri won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 13 game against Oklahoma.

Entering-week projection40% if Missouri won36% with the other result3.3-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท South Carolina 30โ€“31 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection41% if South Carolina won39% with the other result2.6-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 6
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final ยท Utah 55โ€“28 BaylorWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection41% if Baylor won39% with the other result2.4-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
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Impact 7
Rooted for
TCU
at
BYU
Final ยท TCU 13โ€“44 BYUWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Oklahoma did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if TCU won38% with the other result1.9-point differenceOklahoma playoff chance
50 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Oklahoma, then Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Missouri, South Carolina, Baylor, TCU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.