๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#21USC Trojans

4โ€“0 ยท 2โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

USC lost to Illinois. Playoff odds moved from 16% to 7%.

Your game

USC at Illinois
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playoff chanceEntering16%Win19%Loss7%
USC
USC 77%Illinois 23%
Illinois
Final ยท USC 32โ€“34 IllinoisWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result USC wanted
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Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final ยท Ohio State 24โ€“6 WashingtonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.8-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Washington won15% with the other result4.8-point differenceUSC Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final ยท Indiana 20โ€“15 IowaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.7-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Iowa won15% with the other result4.7-point differenceUSC Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Oregon
at
Penn State
Final ยท Oregon 30โ€“24 Penn StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Penn State lost, improving USC's place in the Big Ten standings.

Entering-week projection18% if Oregon won16% with the other result2.1-point differenceUSC Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Auburn
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท Auburn 10โ€“16 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Auburn won16% with the other result1.3-point differenceUSC playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:USC, then Washington, Iowa, Oregon, Auburn.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.