🏈 Fan Watch

#17USC Trojans

8–3 · 6–2 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

USC beat UCLA. Playoff odds moved from 9% to 14%.

The Big Ten title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

UCLA at USC
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NBC
playoff chanceEntering9%Win9%Loss<1%
UCLA
UCLA 2%USC 98%
USC
Final · UCLA 10–29 USCWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result USC wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Stanford
Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.3-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Stanford won9% with the other result6.3-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if Auburn won8% with the other result3.1-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if Mississippi State won9% with the other result2.8-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if LSU won8% with the other result2.6-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 5
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if Washington won8% with the other result2.5-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 6
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Michigan lost again, helping keep them behind USC.

Entering-week projection9% if Ohio State won7% with the other result2.1-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 7
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Tennessee won8% with the other result2-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 8
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Virginia Tech won9% with the other result1.6-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 9
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Pittsburgh won8% with the other result1.5-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 10
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Kansas won9% with the other result1.4-point differenceUSC playoff chance
56 other games had little impact
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:USC, then Stanford, Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU, Washington, Ohio State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Kansas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.