๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#17USC Trojans

7โ€“2 ยท 5โ€“1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

USC beat Iowa. Playoff odds moved from 9% to 19%.

Your game

Iowa at USC
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playoff chanceEntering9%Win14%Loss2%
Iowa
Iowa 39%USC 61%
USC
Final ยท Iowa 21โ€“26 USCWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result USC wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
UCLA
at
Ohio State
Final ยท UCLA 10โ€“48 Ohio StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 12.7-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if UCLA won3% with the other result13-point differenceUSC Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final ยท Florida 24โ€“34 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if Florida won9% with the other result1.9-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Notre Dame 37โ€“15 PittsburghWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection11% if Pittsburgh won9% with the other result1.8-point differenceUSC playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:USC, then UCLA, Florida, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.