🏈 Fan Watch

USC Trojans

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
The Week 1 recap

USC beat Missouri State. Playoff odds moved from 27% to 25%.

Your game

Missouri State at USC
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BTN
playoff chanceEntering27%Win27%Loss15%
Missouri State
Missouri State 4%USC 96%
USC
Final · Missouri State 13–73 USCWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result USC wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Rooted for
Notre Dame
at
Miami
Final · Notre Dame 24–27 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Notre Dame won25% with the other result1.9-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Alabama 17–31 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Florida State won, thinning out the at-large competition for USC's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection28% if Florida State won26% with the other result1.6-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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ESPNU
Impact 3
Rooted for
Northwestern
at
Tulane
Final · Northwestern 3–23 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Tulane won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Northwestern won27% with the other result1.5-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 4
Utah
at
Rooted for
UCLA
Final · Utah 43–10 UCLAWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if UCLA won26% with the other result1.3-point differenceUSC playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 5
Rooted for
Texas
at
Ohio State
Final · Texas 7–14 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so USC did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Texas won26% with the other result1.9-point differenceUSC Big Ten title-game chance
42 other games had little impact
Iowa State at Kansas State · ESPN
Fresno State at Kansas · FOX
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky · CBSSN
Stanford at Hawai'i · CBS
Boise State at South Florida · ESPN
Ohio at Rutgers · BTN
East Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at UCF · ESPN+
Wyoming at Akron · ESPN+
Buffalo at Minnesota · FS1
Nebraska at Cincinnati · ESPN
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin · BTN
Western Michigan at Michigan State · FS1
Kennesaw State at Wake Forest · ACC Network
App State at Charlotte · ESPNU
Auburn at Baylor · FOX
Georgia Tech at Colorado · ESPN
UNLV at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Central Michigan at San José State · FS1
Mississippi State at Southern Miss · ESPN
Syracuse at Tennessee · ABC
Florida Atlantic at Maryland · BTN
Ball State at Purdue · BTN
Toledo at Kentucky · SEC Network
Old Dominion at Indiana · FS1
Marshall at Georgia · ESPN
Nevada at Penn State · CBS
Temple at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Virginia · ACC Network
UTSA at Texas A&M · ESPN
LSU at Clemson · ABC
New Mexico at Michigan · NBC
UTEP at Utah State · CBSSN
Georgia State at Ole Miss · SEC Network
Rice at Louisiana · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Texas State · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Fresno State · FS1
California at Oregon State · ESPN
Hawai'i at Arizona · TNT
Colorado State at Washington · BTN
Virginia Tech at South Carolina · ESPN
TCU at North Carolina · ESPN
The rooting list was:USC, then Notre Dame, Florida State, Northwestern, UCLA, Texas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.