#9Texas A&M Aggies

3–0 · 0–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 5 · 2025

The Week 5 recap

Texas A&M beat Auburn. Playoff odds moved from 33% to 42%.

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ESPN

playoff chanceEntering33%Win38%Loss21%

Auburn

Auburn 30%Texas A&M 70%

Texas A&M

Final · Auburn 10–16 Texas A&MWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ABC

Impact 1

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Arkansas

Final · Notre Dame 56–13 ArkansasWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Arkansas won32% with the other result3.9-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

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ESPNU

Impact 2

Tulane

at

Rooted for

Tulsa

Final · Tulane 31–14 TulsaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Tulane won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Tulsa won32% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

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SEC Network

Impact 3

Tennessee

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Tennessee 41–34 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Tennessee won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if Mississippi State won32% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Rooted for

LSU

at

Ole Miss

Final · LSU 19–24 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if LSU won32% with the other result1.7-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

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Peacock

Impact 5

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Iowa

Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if Iowa won32% with the other result1.5-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 6

Rooted for

TCU

at

Arizona State

Final · TCU 24–27 Arizona StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Arizona State won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if TCU won32% with the other result1.4-point differenceTexas A&M playoff chance

44 other games had little impact

Army at East Carolina · ESPN

Florida State at Virginia · ESPN

Houston at Oregon State · ESPN

Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN

USC at Illinois · FOX

Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN

Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2

Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT

UCF at Kansas State · FS1

South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU

Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN

Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+

Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+

UCLA at Northwestern · BTN

Ohio State at Washington · CBS

California at Boston College · ACC Network

Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2

Utah at West Virginia · FOX

UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+

San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+

Rice at Navy · CBSSN

Akron at Toledo · ESPN+

New Mexico State at New Mexico

Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1

Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+

Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+

Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network

Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN

Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+

Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2

Alabama at Georgia · ABC

Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU

Oregon at Penn State · NBC

Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN

San José State at Stanford · ACC Network

App State at Boise State · FS1

Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network

Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+

Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+

BYU at Colorado · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.