#3Texas A&M Aggies

9–0 · 6–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Texas A&M beat South Carolina. Playoff odds moved from 96% to 99%.

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ESPN

SEC title-game chanceEntering36%Win41%Loss2%

South Carolina

South Carolina 13%Texas A&M 87%

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Florida

at

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if Florida won35% with the other result9-point differenceTexas A&M SEC title-game chance

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BTN

Impact 2

Rooted for

Wisconsin

at

Indiana

Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.7-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection64% if Wisconsin won59% with the other result5.7-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Rooted for

Texas

at

Georgia

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.3-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if Texas won57% with the other result5.3-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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FOX

Impact 4

Rooted for

UCF

at

Texas Tech

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.7-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if UCF won58% with the other result4.7-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 5

Rooted for

Oklahoma

at

Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓

Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Alabama lost, improving Texas A&M's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection38% if Oklahoma won35% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas A&M SEC title-game chance

52 other games had little impact

TCU at BYU · ESPN

Utah at Baylor · ESPN2

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Minnesota at Oregon · FOX

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

NC State at Miami · ESPN

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.