#3Texas A&M Aggies

8–0 · 5–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 11 · 2025

The Week 11 recap

Texas A&M beat Missouri. Playoff odds moved from 96% to 96%.

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ABC

first-round bye chanceEntering60%Win78%Loss42%

Texas A&M

Texas A&M 49%Missouri 51%

Missouri

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 16.6-point title-game boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Mississippi State won20% with the other result17-point differenceTexas A&M SEC title-game chance

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ABC

Impact 2

Rooted for

LSU

at

Alabama

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

Projected 7.0-point title-game boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if LSU won20% with the other result7-point differenceTexas A&M SEC title-game chance

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BTN

Impact 3

Ohio State

at

Rooted for

Purdue

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.1-point first-round-bye boost

Ohio State won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection65% if Purdue won60% with the other result5.1-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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FOX

Impact 4

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Penn State

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.1-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if Penn State won59% with the other result4.1-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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CBS

Impact 5

Oregon

at

Rooted for

Iowa

Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.3-point first-round-bye boost

Oregon won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Iowa won59% with the other result3.3-point differenceTexas A&M first-round bye chance

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SEC Network

Impact 6

Rooted for

Auburn

at

Vanderbilt

Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point title-game boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Texas A&M did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Auburn won21% with the other result2.7-point differenceTexas A&M SEC title-game chance

44 other games had little impact

Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network

Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2

Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU

Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2

Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2

UTSA at South Florida · ESPN

Houston at UCF · FS1

Northwestern at USC · FOX

Tulane at Memphis · ESPN

SMU at Boston College · ACC Network

BYU at Texas Tech · ABC

Colorado at West Virginia · TNT

James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2

Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU

Temple at Army · CBSSN

Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

UAB at Rice · ESPN+

Maryland at Rutgers · FS1

Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+

Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Syracuse at Miami · ESPN

Duke at UConn · CBSSN

Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2

Iowa State at TCU · FOX

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Washington at Wisconsin · BTN

Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network

Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+

Air Force at San José State · FS1

California at Louisville · ESPN2

Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network

Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN

Navy at Notre Dame · NBC

Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN

Nebraska at UCLA · FOX

UNLV at Colorado State · FS1

Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network

San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.