The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TCU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 31% | 18% | 18% |
 #11Arizona State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.1–2.9 | 31% | 17% | 19% |
 #17Kansas State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.4–3.6 | 23% | 12% | 12% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 21% | 10% | 9% |
 BYU | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 18% | 9% | 9% |
 Utah | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–4.0 | 17% | 8% | 8% |
 #22Iowa State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.9–4.1 | 15% | 7% | 7% |
 Colorado | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 12% | 6% | 5% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 11% | 4% | 3% |
 #23Texas Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 8% | 3% | 3% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.7–4.3 | 7% | 3% | 2% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.5–5.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–5.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.9–6.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Houston | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1).