๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#2Penn State Nittany Lions

3โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 4 ยท 2025
The Week 4 recap

Penn State was off. Playoff odds moved from >99% to 96%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Michigan State
at
USC
Final ยท Michigan State 31โ€“45 USCWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.6-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection77% if Michigan State won71% with the other result5.6-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Michigan
at
Rooted for
Nebraska
Final ยท Michigan 30โ€“27 NebraskaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.9-point title-game boost

Michigan won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection74% if Nebraska won70% with the other result3.9-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Rice at Charlotte ยท ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers ยท FOX
Arkansas at Memphis ยท ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin ยท NBC
Syracuse at Clemson ยท ESPN
SMU at TCU ยท ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah ยท FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) ยท ESPNU
North Texas at Army ยท CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon ยท BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Purdue at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kent State at Florida State ยท ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF ยท FOX
Ball State at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
NC State at Duke ยท ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas ยท FS1
Delaware at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri ยท ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Florida at Miami ยท ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt ยท ESPNU
Washington at Washington State ยท CBS
Illinois at Indiana ยท NBC
Stanford at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor ยท FOX
BYU at East Carolina ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Texas ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP ยท ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Colorado ยท ESPN
California at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Penn State is off, then Michigan State, Nebraska.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.