๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Penn State Nittany Lions

3โ€“3 ยท 0โ€“3 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 8 ยท 2025
The Week 8 recap

Penn State lost to Iowa. Playoff odds moved from 15% to 10%.

Your game

Penn State at Iowa
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playoff chanceEntering15%Win22%Loss5%
Penn State
Penn State 62%Iowa 38%
Iowa
Final ยท Penn State 24โ€“25 IowaWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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Impact 1
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Rutgers
Final ยท Oregon 56โ€“10 RutgersWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Rutgers won15% with the other result2.7-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Wisconsin
Final ยท Ohio State 34โ€“0 WisconsinWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Ohio State won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 10 game against Penn State.

Entering-week projection15% if Ohio State won13% with the other result2.1-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 3
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Texas A&M 45โ€“42 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Arkansas won15% with the other result1.6-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
USC
at
Notre Dame
Final ยท USC 24โ€“34 Notre DameWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if USC won15% with the other result1.3-point differencePenn State playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
New Mexico State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Arkansas State at South Alabama ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Western Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Louisville at Miami ยท ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota ยท FOX
San Josรฉ State at Utah State ยท CBSSN
North Carolina at California ยท ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt ยท ABC
Washington at Michigan ยท FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke ยท ESPN
UConn at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Arizona at Houston ยท FS1
Baylor at TCU ยท ESPN2
Army at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green ยท CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
West Virginia at UCF ยท TNT
Kent State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern ยท BTN
Troy at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Ole Miss at Georgia ยท ABC
Michigan State at Indiana ยท Peacock
SMU at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force ยท CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State ยท FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State ยท ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison ยท ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas ยท ESPN+
Akron at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Arizona State ยท FOX
Memphis at UAB ยท ESPN2
Mississippi State at Florida ยท SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Washington State at Virginia ยท The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky ยท ESPN
Maryland at UCLA ยท FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama ยท ABC
Pittsburgh at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Florida Atlantic at South Florida ยท ESPNU
Missouri at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Utah at BYU ยท FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico ยท FS1
Florida State at Stanford ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Rutgers, Ohio State, Arkansas, USC.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.