๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

UNLV Rebels

3โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 4 ยท 2025
The Week 4 recap

UNLV beat Miami (OH). Playoff odds moved from 15% to 13%.

Your game

UNLV at Miami (OH)
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playoff chanceEntering15%Win18%Loss9%
UNLV
UNLV 67%Miami (OH) 33%
Miami (OH)
Final ยท UNLV 41โ€“38 Miami (OH)Wish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result UNLV wanted
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TV TBA
Impact 1
Fresno State
at
Rooted for
Hawai'i
Final ยท Fresno State 23โ€“21 Hawai'iWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.2-point title-game boost

Fresno State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Hawai'i won69% with the other result3.2-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
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Impact 2
Boise State
at
Rooted for
Air Force
Final ยท Boise State 49โ€“37 Air ForceWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

Boise State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Air Force won69% with the other result3.1-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
UTSA at Colorado State ยท FS1
Rice at Charlotte ยท ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers ยท FOX
Arkansas at Memphis ยท ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin ยท NBC
Syracuse at Clemson ยท ESPN
SMU at TCU ยท ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah ยท FOX
North Texas at Army ยท CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon ยท BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Michigan at Nebraska ยท CBS
Purdue at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kent State at Florida State ยท ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF ยท FOX
Ball State at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
NC State at Duke ยท ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas ยท FS1
Delaware at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri ยท ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Florida at Miami ยท ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt ยท ESPNU
Washington at Washington State ยท CBS
Illinois at Indiana ยท NBC
Stanford at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor ยท FOX
BYU at East Carolina ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Texas ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Wyoming at Colorado ยท ESPN
California at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Michigan State at USC ยท FOX
The rooting list was:UNLV, then Hawai'i, Air Force.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.