UNLV Rebels

8–2 · 4–2 MOUNTAIN WEST

In the books

WEEK 13 · 2025

The Week 13 recap

UNLV beat Hawai'i. Playoff odds moved from 4% to 6%.

…

…

FS1

MW title-game chanceEntering56%Win72%Loss3%

Hawai'i

Hawai'i 24%UNLV 76%

UNLV

Final · Hawai'i 10–38 UNLVWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

…

…

FS1

Impact 1

Rooted for

Colorado State

at

Boise State

Final · Colorado State 21–49 Boise StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 11.5-point title-game boost

Boise State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Colorado State won55% with the other result12-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance

…

…

CBSSN

Impact 2

Utah State

at

Rooted for

Fresno State

Final · Utah State 28–17 Fresno StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 9.6-point title-game boost

Utah State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if Fresno State won49% with the other result9.6-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance

…

…

FS1

Impact 3

Rooted for

San José State

at

San Diego State

Final · San José State 3–25 San Diego StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 8.2-point title-game boost

San Diego State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if San José State won55% with the other result8.2-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance

…

…

NBC

Impact 4

Syracuse

at

Rooted for

Notre Dame

Final · Syracuse 7–70 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won, thinning out the at-large competition for UNLV's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection4% if Notre Dame won1% with the other result2.8-point differenceUNLV playoff chance

…

…

ESPN+

Impact 5

Rooted for

Washington State

at

James Madison

Final · Washington State 20–24 James MadisonWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection6% if Washington State won4% with the other result2.4-point differenceUNLV playoff chance

…

…

CBSSN

Impact 6

New Mexico

at

Rooted for

Air Force

Final · New Mexico 20–3 Air ForceWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

New Mexico won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection57% if Air Force won54% with the other result3-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance

…

…

ESPNU

Impact 7

North Texas

at

Rooted for

Rice

Final · North Texas 56–24 RiceWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

North Texas won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection6% if Rice won4% with the other result1.6-point differenceUNLV playoff chance

…

…

ESPNU

Impact 8

Tulane

at

Rooted for

Temple

Final · Tulane 37–13 TempleWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Tulane won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection5% if Temple won4% with the other result1.3-point differenceUNLV playoff chance

51 other games had little impact

Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU

Massachusetts at Ohio · CBSSN

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois · ESPN2

Miami (OH) at Buffalo · ESPN2

Central Michigan at Kent State · ESPNU

Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN

Florida State at NC State · ESPN

Missouri at Oklahoma · ABC

Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN

Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX

Louisville at SMU · ESPN2

Miami at Virginia Tech · ESPN

Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network

Kansas at Iowa State · FS1

Tulsa at Army · CBSSN

Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network

Baylor at Arizona · TNT

Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+

Nevada at Wyoming

Ball State at Toledo · ESPN+

Marshall at App State · ESPN+

UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+

Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+

South Florida at UAB · ESPN+

Arkansas at Texas · ABC

Kentucky at Vanderbilt · ESPN

USC at Oregon · CBS

Michigan State at Iowa · FS1

Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network

Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN

Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+

East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+

Michigan at Maryland · BTN

TCU at Houston · FOX

Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+

Kansas State at Utah · ESPN2

Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network

UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+

Nebraska at Penn State · NBC

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Tennessee at Florida · ABC

Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN

California at Stanford · ACC Network

Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network

BYU at Cincinnati · FOX

Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2

Washington at UCLA · NBC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.