๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

UNLV Rebels

6โ€“0 ยท 2โ€“0 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 8 ยท 2025
The Week 8 recap

UNLV lost to Boise State. Playoff odds moved from 9% to 2%.

Your game

UNLV at Boise State
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MW title-game chanceEntering74%Win94%Loss64%
UNLV
UNLV 33%Boise State 67%
Boise State
Final ยท UNLV 31โ€“56 Boise StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result UNLV wanted
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Impact 1
Memphis
at
Rooted for
UAB
Final ยท Memphis 24โ€“31 UABWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

UAB won, thinning out the at-large competition for UNLV's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection11% if UAB won9% with the other result2.4-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
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Impact 2
San Josรฉ State
at
Rooted for
Utah State
Final ยท San Josรฉ State 25โ€“30 Utah StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

San Josรฉ State lost, improving UNLV's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection75% if Utah State won73% with the other result2.2-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Washington State
at
Virginia
Final ยท Washington State 20โ€“22 VirginiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Washington State won9% with the other result1.2-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Florida Atlantic
at
South Florida
Final ยท Florida Atlantic 13โ€“48 South FloridaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

South Florida won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection10% if Florida Atlantic won9% with the other result1.2-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
Texas at Kentucky ยท ESPN
New Mexico State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Arkansas State at South Alabama ยท ESPN2
Florida International at Western Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Louisville at Miami ยท ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota ยท FOX
North Carolina at California ยท ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt ยท ABC
Washington at Michigan ยท FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke ยท ESPN
UConn at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Arizona at Houston ยท FS1
Baylor at TCU ยท ESPN2
Army at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green ยท CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
West Virginia at UCF ยท TNT
Kent State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern ยท BTN
Troy at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Arkansas ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Georgia ยท ABC
Ohio State at Wisconsin ยท CBS
Michigan State at Indiana ยท Peacock
SMU at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at App State ยท ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison ยท ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas ยท ESPN+
Akron at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Arizona State ยท FOX
Mississippi State at Florida ยท SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Oregon at Rutgers ยท BTN
Penn State at Iowa ยท Peacock
Maryland at UCLA ยท FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama ยท ABC
USC at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Pittsburgh at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Missouri at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Utah at BYU ยท FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico ยท FS1
Florida State at Stanford ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:UNLV, then UAB, Utah State, Washington State, Florida Atlantic.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.