๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

UNLV Rebels

9โ€“2 ยท 5โ€“2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 14 ยท 2025
The Week 14 recap

UNLV beat Nevada. Playoff odds moved from 6% to 12%.

Your game

UNLV at Nevada
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MW title-game chanceEntering63%Win73%Loss16%
UNLV
UNLV 82%Nevada 18%
Nevada
Final ยท UNLV 42โ€“17 NevadaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result UNLV wanted
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Impact 1
San Diego State
at
Rooted for
New Mexico
Final ยท San Diego State 17โ€“23 New MexicoWish granted โœ“
Projected 44.2-point title-game boost

San Diego State lost, improving UNLV's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection82% if New Mexico won38% with the other result44-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
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Impact 2
Boise State
at
Rooted for
Utah State
Final ยท Boise State 25โ€“24 Utah StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 44.2-point title-game boost

Boise State won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection90% if Utah State won46% with the other result44-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Charlotte
at
Tulane
Final ยท Charlotte 0โ€“27 TulaneWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Tulane won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Charlotte won6% with the other result2.6-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
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Impact 4
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Coastal Carolina
Final ยท James Madison 59โ€“10 Coastal CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Coastal Carolina won6% with the other result2.5-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
62 other games had little impact
SMU at California ยท ESPN2
Bowling Green at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN2
Navy at Memphis ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Mississippi State ยท ABC
Iowa at Nebraska ยท CBS
Utah at Kansas ยท ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo ยท ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois ยท CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State ยท FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech ยท ABC
Temple at North Texas ยท ESPN
Texas A&M at Texas ยท ABC
Indiana at Purdue ยท NBC
Arizona at Arizona State ยท FOX
Kentucky at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan ยท FOX
Miami at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Houston at Baylor ยท TNT
Colorado at Kansas State ยท FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia ยท ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) ยท CBSSN
UCF at BYU ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State ยท ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State ยท ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
LSU at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Vanderbilt at Tennessee ยท ESPN
Oregon at Washington ยท CBS
Wisconsin at Minnesota ยท FS1
Penn State at Rutgers ยท BTN
Wake Forest at Duke ยท ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU ยท FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Army at UTSA ยท ESPN+
Florida State at Florida ยท ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State ยท FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia ยท ESPN
Rice at South Florida ยท ESPN+
Alabama at Auburn ยท ABC
UCLA at USC ยท NBC
Northwestern at Illinois ยท FOX
North Carolina at NC State ยท ACC Network
Notre Dame at Stanford ยท ESPN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:UNLV, then New Mexico, Utah State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.