๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

UNLV Rebels

7โ€“2 ยท 3โ€“2 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

UNLV beat Utah State. Playoff odds moved from 5% to 4%.

Your game

Utah State at UNLV
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MW title-game chanceEntering53%Win61%Loss18%
Utah State
Utah State 19%UNLV 81%
UNLV
Final ยท Utah State 26โ€“29 UNLVWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result UNLV wanted
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TV TBA
Impact 1
Rooted for
Colorado State
at
New Mexico
Final ยท Colorado State 17โ€“20 New MexicoWent the other way โœ—
Projected 12.0-point title-game boost

New Mexico won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection63% if Colorado State won51% with the other result12-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
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Impact 2
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final ยท South Florida 38โ€“41 NavyWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Navy won, thinning out the at-large competition for UNLV's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection6% if Navy won4% with the other result2-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final ยท App State 10โ€“58 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so UNLV did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if App State won5% with the other result1.7-point differenceUNLV playoff chance
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Impact 4
Wyoming
at
Rooted for
Fresno State
Final ยท Wyoming 3โ€“24 Fresno StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Wyoming lost, improving UNLV's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection54% if Fresno State won52% with the other result2-point differenceUNLV MW title-game chance
53 other games had little impact
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:UNLV, then Colorado State, Navy, App State, Fresno State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.