๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#20Iowa Hawkeyes

6โ€“2 ยท 4โ€“1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

Iowa lost to Oregon. Playoff odds moved from 10% to 4%.

Your game

Oregon at Iowa
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
playoff chanceEntering10%Win20%Loss3%
Oregon
Oregon 59%Iowa 41%
Iowa
Final ยท Oregon 18โ€“16 IowaWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Iowa wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final ยท Ohio State 34โ€“10 PurdueWent the other way โœ—
Projected 12.7-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Iowa did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Purdue won3% with the other result13-point differenceIowa Big Ten title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Northwestern
at
Rooted for
USC
Final ยท Northwestern 17โ€“38 USCWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

USC won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 12 game against Iowa.

Entering-week projection10% if USC won9% with the other result1.2-point differenceIowa playoff chance
48 other games had little impact
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
SMU at Boston College ยท ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Syracuse at Miami ยท ESPN
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Stanford at North Carolina ยท The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia ยท ESPN
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Iowa, then Purdue, USC.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.