🏈 Fan Watch

#7BYU Cougars

8–0 · 5–0 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

BYU lost to Texas Tech. Playoff odds moved from 49% to 30%.

Your game

BYU at Texas Tech
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering49%Win74%Loss44%
BYU
BYU 19%Texas Tech 81%
Texas Tech
Final · BYU 7–29 Texas TechWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result BYU wanted
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BTN
Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.6-point playoff boost

Ohio State won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection55% if Purdue won49% with the other result5.6-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 2
Rooted for
Iowa State
at
TCU
Final · Iowa State 20–17 TCUWish granted ✓
Projected 4.6-point title-game boost

TCU lost, improving BYU's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection61% if Iowa State won57% with the other result4.6-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance
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FS1
Impact 3
Houston
at
Rooted for
UCF
Final · Houston 30–27 UCFWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Houston won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection50% if UCF won47% with the other result2.8-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if Mississippi State won49% with the other result2.6-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 5
Rooted for
LSU
at
Alabama
Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if LSU won49% with the other result2.2-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
Kansas
at
Rooted for
Arizona
Final · Kansas 20–24 ArizonaWish granted ✓
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

Kansas lost, improving BYU's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection59% if Arizona won56% with the other result3.1-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance
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ESPNU
Impact 7
Kent State
at
Rooted for
Ball State
Final · Kent State 13–17 Ball StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Ball State won, thinning out the at-large competition for BYU's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection50% if Ball State won48% with the other result1.6-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 8
Rooted for
Florida State
at
Clemson
Final · Florida State 10–24 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Clemson won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection50% if Florida State won49% with the other result1.3-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 9
Rooted for
Auburn
at
Vanderbilt
Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection50% if Auburn won49% with the other result1.3-point differenceBYU playoff chance
41 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:BYU, then Purdue, Iowa State, UCF, Mississippi State, LSU, Arizona, Ball State, Florida State, Auburn.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.