🏈 Fan Watch

#12BYU Cougars

8–1 · 5–1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

BYU beat TCU. Playoff odds moved from 30% to 36%.

Your game

TCU at BYU
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ESPN
playoff chanceEntering30%Win41%Loss13%
TCU
TCU 39%BYU 61%
BYU
Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result BYU wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Rooted for
UCF
at
Texas Tech
Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 11.7-point title-game boost

Texas Tech won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if UCF won46% with the other result12-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance
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truTV
Impact 2
Rooted for
West Virginia
at
Arizona State
Final · West Virginia 23–25 Arizona StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 11.2-point title-game boost

Arizona State won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection57% if West Virginia won46% with the other result11-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance
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FS1
Impact 3
Rooted for
Arizona
at
Cincinnati
Final · Arizona 30–24 CincinnatiWish granted ✓
Projected 9.8-point title-game boost

Cincinnati lost, improving BYU's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection53% if Arizona won43% with the other result9.8-point differenceBYU Big 12 title-game chance
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FOX
Impact 4
Rooted for
Minnesota
at
Oregon
Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Minnesota won30% with the other result3.2-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Florida won30% with the other result3.1-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Baylor won29% with the other result3-point differenceBYU playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 7
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so BYU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Pittsburgh won30% with the other result2.1-point differenceBYU playoff chance
50 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:BYU, then UCF, West Virginia, Arizona, Minnesota, Florida, Baylor, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.