The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 9 · 2026

Week 9 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 9.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Utah at Cincinnati

Utah 83%

Who cares:Utah ±34pp Iowa ±4pp Ole Miss ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

63 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Auburn at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 84%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±32pp Texas ±4pp Alabama ±4pp Iowa ±3pp

59 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Miami at North Carolina

Miami 93%

Who cares:Miami ±36pp SMU ±8pp Clemson ±4pp Louisville ±4pp

62 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Ohio State at USC

Ohio State 71%

Who cares:USC ±27pp Penn State ±6pp Ole Miss ±3pp Alabama ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Wisconsin at Iowa

Iowa 91%

Who cares:Iowa ±32pp Ole Miss ±5pp Utah ±4pp Penn State ±3pp

58 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Purdue at Penn State

Penn State 97%

Who cares:Penn State ±33pp Ole Miss ±5pp Miami ±5pp Texas ±4pp

57 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

THU OCT 29

Troy at James Madison

James Madison 95%

Who cares:James Madison ±31pp South Florida ±8pp North Texas ±5pp UNLV ±2pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Mississippi State at Texas

Texas 90%

Who cares:Texas ±21pp Ole Miss ±4pp Penn State ±3pp Utah ±2pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Arizona at Texas Tech

Texas Tech 91%

Who cares:Arizona ±6pp BYU ±3pp Ole Miss ±3pp Utah ±3pp

25 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Clemson at Florida State

Clemson 63%

Who cares:Clemson ±8pp SMU ±2pp Miami ±2pp

12 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.