The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

Ohio StateatUSC

Ohio State 62%

Rooting for

Ohio StateOhio State

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 87.6%If USC wins: 67.3%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Ohio State wins: 71.6%If USC wins: 68.6%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Ohio State wins: 11.7%If USC wins: 10%

Rooting for

USCUSC

USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 40.8%If Ohio State wins: 13.1%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

ArizonaatTexas Tech

Texas Tech 85%

Rooting for

ArizonaArizona

ArizonaCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Arizona wins: 11.1%If Texas Tech wins: 2.5%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Arizona wins: 47%If Texas Tech wins: 42.9%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Arizona wins: 10.4%If Texas Tech wins: 7.7%

Rooting for

Texas TechTexas Tech

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 71.1%If Arizona wins: 40.7%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

AuburnatOle Miss

Ole Miss 84%

Rooting for

AuburnAuburn

AuburnCurrent playoff chance: 4.8%If Auburn wins: 13.6%If Ole Miss wins: 3.1%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Auburn wins: 31.3%If Ole Miss wins: 28.8%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Auburn wins: 43.9%If Ole Miss wins: 42.2%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 65.7%If Auburn wins: 38.7%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Ole Miss wins: 73.2%If Auburn wins: 71.8%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

WashingtonatNebraska

Washington 65%

Rooting for

WashingtonWashington

WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 28.6%If Nebraska wins: 11.2%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Washington wins: 46.2%If Nebraska wins: 44.5%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Washington wins: 71%If Nebraska wins: 69.4%

Rooting for

NebraskaNebraska

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Nebraska wins: 43.1%If Washington wins: 39.6%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Nebraska wins: 81.2%If Washington wins: 79.1%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Nebraska wins: 43.6%If Washington wins: 41.8%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

MiamiatNorth Carolina

Miami 88%

Rooting for

MiamiMiami

MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 58.6%If North Carolina wins: 30.5%

Rooting for

North CarolinaUNC

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If North Carolina wins: 28.1%If Miami wins: 22.5%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If North Carolina wins: 14.6%If Miami wins: 10.6%ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If North Carolina wins: 10.6%If Miami wins: 8.5%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

UtahatCincinnati

Utah 79%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 48.8%If Cincinnati wins: 23.6%

Rooting for

CincinnatiCincinnati

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Cincinnati wins: 69.7%If Utah wins: 65.8%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Cincinnati wins: 33%If Utah wins: 31.2%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Cincinnati wins: 9.5%If Utah wins: 7.8%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

South CarolinaatOklahoma

Oklahoma 70%

Rooting for

South CarolinaSC

South CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 7.8%If South Carolina wins: 15.1%If Oklahoma wins: 4.6%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If South Carolina wins: 74.2%If Oklahoma wins: 72.5%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If South Carolina wins: 80.8%If Oklahoma wins: 79.4%

Rooting for

OklahomaOklahoma

OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 24.7%If South Carolina wins: 10.1%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Oklahoma wins: 62%If South Carolina wins: 60.1%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Oklahoma wins: 12.8%If South Carolina wins: 11.6%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

NorthwesternatOregon

Oregon 90%

Rooting for

NorthwesternNorthwestern

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Northwestern wins: 43.8%If Oregon wins: 40.5%NorthwesternCurrent playoff chance: 0.9%If Northwestern wins: 3.8%If Oregon wins: 0.6%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Northwestern wins: 19.5%If Oregon wins: 16.9%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 72.9%If Northwestern wins: 47.3%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Oregon wins: 11.2%If Northwestern wins: 10%

…

… · ABC

FloridaatGeorgia

Georgia 84%

Rooting for

FloridaFlorida

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Florida wins: 38.6%If Georgia wins: 34.4%FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If Florida wins: 5.5%If Georgia wins: 1.4%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Florida wins: 44.1%If Georgia wins: 42.1%

Rooting for

GeorgiaGeorgia

GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 76.9%If Florida wins: 52.7%

TBD

SAT OCT 31

WisconsinatIowa

Iowa 88%

Rooting for

WisconsinWisconsin

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Wisconsin wins: 45.9%If Iowa wins: 43.2%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Wisconsin wins: 36.8%If Iowa wins: 34.8%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Wisconsin wins: 12.7%If Iowa wins: 10.9%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 43.8%If Wisconsin wins: 18.2%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.