The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 12 · 2026

Week 12 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 12.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Utah at TCU

Utah 73%

Who cares:Utah ±38pp Penn State ±4pp Iowa ±4pp Vanderbilt ±4pp

71 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Iowa at Illinois

Iowa 77%

Who cares:Iowa ±36pp Penn State ±5pp Alabama ±5pp Vanderbilt ±3pp

67 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Rutgers at Penn State

Penn State 93%

Who cares:Penn State ±38pp Ole Miss ±5pp Alabama ±4pp Utah ±4pp

73 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Texas A&M at Oklahoma

Oklahoma 53%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±22pp Oklahoma ±8pp Alabama ±3pp Utah ±2pp

43 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Virginia Tech at Miami

Miami 96%

Who cares:Miami ±36pp SMU ±7pp Clemson ±4pp South Florida ±4pp

57 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Vanderbilt at Florida

Vanderbilt 72%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±19pp Ole Miss ±2pp Iowa ±2pp Utah ±2pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Arkansas at Texas

Texas 86%

Who cares:Texas ±22pp Ole Miss ±3pp Penn State ±2pp USC ±2pp

37 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

North Texas at Tulane

North Texas 50%

Who cares:North Texas ±9pp South Florida ±3pp Tulane ±3pp Miami ±1pp

16 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI NOV 20

Clemson at Duke

Clemson 57%

Who cares:Clemson ±9pp Duke ±2pp

10 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Pittsburgh at Louisville

Louisville 70%

Who cares:Louisville ±9pp Pittsburgh ±3pp Ole Miss ±1pp Alabama ±1pp

15 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.