The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Texas A&MatOklahoma

Oklahoma 56%

Rooting for

Texas A&MTexas A&M

Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 48%If Oklahoma wins: 18.6%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas A&M wins: 43.7%If Oklahoma wins: 41.4%

Rooting for

OklahomaOklahoma

OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 30%If Texas A&M wins: 7.9%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Oklahoma wins: 30.1%If Texas A&M wins: 28.1%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Oklahoma wins: 13.1%If Texas A&M wins: 11.6%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

IowaatIllinois

Iowa 68%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 51.6%If Illinois wins: 18.1%

Rooting for

IllinoisIllinois

IllinoisCurrent playoff chance: 1.8%If Illinois wins: 4.7%If Iowa wins: 0.4%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Illinois wins: 46.9%If Iowa wins: 45%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Illinois wins: 81.1%If Iowa wins: 79.3%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

VanderbiltatFlorida

Vanderbilt 64%

Rooting for

VanderbiltVanderbilt

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.7%If Florida wins: 16.5%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 17.7%If Florida wins: 16.2%

Rooting for

FloridaFlorida

FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If Florida wins: 4.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 0.5%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Florida wins: 44.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 42.7%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Florida wins: 30.5%If Vanderbilt wins: 28.5%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

GeorgiaatSouth Carolina

Georgia 69%

Rooting for

GeorgiaGeorgia

GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 82.3%If South Carolina wins: 52%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Georgia wins: 36.4%If South Carolina wins: 35%

Rooting for

South CarolinaSC

South CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 7.8%If South Carolina wins: 17.6%If Georgia wins: 3.4%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If South Carolina wins: 41.9%If Georgia wins: 40.3%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If South Carolina wins: 43.5%If Georgia wins: 42%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

UtahatTCU

Utah 65%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 54.6%If TCU wins: 22.6%

Rooting for

TCUTCU

TCUCurrent playoff chance: 3.3%If TCU wins: 7.5%If Utah wins: 1%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If TCU wins: 70.2%If Utah wins: 64.7%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If TCU wins: 46.8%If Utah wins: 45%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

IndianaatWashington

Indiana 77%

Rooting for

IndianaIndiana

IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 98.1%If Indiana wins: 99.4%If Washington wins: 93.7%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Indiana wins: 43%If Washington wins: 40.5%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Indiana wins: 41.3%If Washington wins: 39.3%

Rooting for

WashingtonWashington

WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 45.3%If Indiana wins: 15.9%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Washington wins: 71.5%If Indiana wins: 70.1%

…

… · FOX

OregonatMichigan State

Oregon 87%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 74.8%If Michigan State wins: 41.3%

Rooting for

Michigan StateMSU

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Michigan State wins: 64%If Oregon wins: 61%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Michigan State wins: 22.7%If Oregon wins: 19.9%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Michigan State wins: 44.3%If Oregon wins: 42.1%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Ohio StateatNebraska

Ohio State 83%

Rooting for

Ohio StateOhio State

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 84.8%If Nebraska wins: 55.1%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Ohio State wins: 11.3%If Nebraska wins: 10.1%

Rooting for

NebraskaNebraska

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Nebraska wins: 44.1%If Ohio State wins: 40.2%NebraskaCurrent playoff chance: 0.7%If Nebraska wins: 3%If Ohio State wins: 0.3%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Nebraska wins: 36.9%If Ohio State wins: 34.7%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

Texas TechatBaylor

Texas Tech 81%

Rooting for

Texas TechTexas Tech

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 72.1%If Baylor wins: 42.3%

Rooting for

BaylorBaylor

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Baylor wins: 45.6%If Texas Tech wins: 43%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Baylor wins: 10%If Texas Tech wins: 7.7%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Baylor wins: 63.2%If Texas Tech wins: 61%

TBD

SAT NOV 21

ArkansasatTexas

Texas 85%

Rooting for

ArkansasArkansas

ArkansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Arkansas wins: 5.7%If Texas wins: 0.7%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Arkansas wins: 81.7%If Texas wins: 79.5%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Arkansas wins: 72%If Texas wins: 70.2%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 46.8%If Arkansas wins: 18.2%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.