🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 7 · 2026
Week 7 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 7.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Penn StateatMichigan
Penn State 53%
Rooting for
Penn State
Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 58.7%If Michigan wins: 30.8%
Rooting for
Michigan
MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Michigan wins: 17.1%If Penn State wins: 5.8%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Michigan wins: 71.6%If Penn State wins: 69.4%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Michigan wins: 80.8%If Penn State wins: 79%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
AlabamaatTennessee
Tennessee 55%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 41.2%If Tennessee wins: 19.5%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 23.7%If Alabama wins: 9.2%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Tennessee wins: 46.3%If Alabama wins: 44.8%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Tennessee wins: 32%If Alabama wins: 31%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Florida StateatMiami
Miami 89%
Rooting for
Florida State
SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Florida State wins: 27.9%If Miami wins: 22.6%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Florida State wins: 13.6%If Miami wins: 10.8%Florida StateCurrent playoff chance: 0.6%If Florida State wins: 2.3%If Miami wins: 0.4%
Rooting for
Miami
MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 58.2%If Florida State wins: 30.8%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
MissouriatOle Miss
Ole Miss 80%
Rooting for
Missouri
MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Missouri wins: 24.5%If Ole Miss wins: 9.3%
Rooting for
Ole Miss
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 66.2%If Missouri wins: 42.7%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Arizona StateatTexas Tech
Texas Tech 89%
Rooting for
Arizona State
Arizona StateCurrent playoff chance: 1.6%If Arizona State wins: 5.8%If Texas Tech wins: 1%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Arizona State wins: 46.3%If Texas Tech wins: 43.1%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Arizona State wins: 10.7%If Texas Tech wins: 7.8%
Rooting for
Texas Tech
Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 69.8%If Arizona State wins: 42%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
FloridaatTexas
Texas 84%
Rooting for
Florida
FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If Florida wins: 5.6%If Texas wins: 1.4%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Florida wins: 74.8%If Texas wins: 72.6%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Florida wins: 24.3%If Texas wins: 22.2%
Rooting for
Texas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 45.6%If Florida wins: 26.1%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
AuburnatGeorgia
Georgia 86%
Rooting for
Auburn
AuburnCurrent playoff chance: 4.8%If Auburn wins: 11.9%If Georgia wins: 3.6%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Auburn wins: 31.9%If Georgia wins: 28.8%
Rooting for
Georgia
GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 76.2%If Auburn wins: 52.8%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
VirginiaatSMU
SMU 77%
Rooting for
Virginia
VirginiaCurrent playoff chance: 3.2%If Virginia wins: 8.7%If SMU wins: 1.6%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Virginia wins: 57.3%If SMU wins: 54.6%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Virginia wins: 41.8%If SMU wins: 40.5%
Rooting for
SMU
SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If SMU wins: 27.3%If Virginia wins: 9.2%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
Ohio StateatIndiana
Indiana 77%
Rooting for
Ohio State
Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 91%If Indiana wins: 76.5%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Ohio State wins: 71.4%If Indiana wins: 70.1%
Rooting for
Indiana
IndianaCurrent playoff chance: 98.1%If Indiana wins: 99.1%If Ohio State wins: 95%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Indiana wins: 23.1%If Ohio State wins: 20.7%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Indiana wins: 42.8%If Ohio State wins: 41.2%
TBD
SAT OCT 17
ArkansasatVanderbilt
Vanderbilt 83%
Rooting for
Arkansas
ArkansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Arkansas wins: 3.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 0.9%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Arkansas wins: 44.3%If Vanderbilt wins: 42.1%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Arkansas wins: 32.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 31.3%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 38.5%If Arkansas wins: 19.1%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 17.4%If Arkansas wins: 16.2%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.